No evidence of autism epidemic?--Rick Rollens

11/2001

 At the recent IMFAR (International Meeting For Autism Research) Conference,
noted autism epidemiologist Dr. Eric Fombonne stated in his presentation that
based on 50 previously published epi studies of autism, the prevalence rate
of autism had been established, by his work and others, at between 2 to 10
per 10,000...which is to say as low as 1-5000 or as high as 1-1000
(Fombonne's own past studies reported the lower end of the prevalence
spectrum). In a monumental statement at IMFAR, Fombonne now claims, as a
result of his most recent work, that the prevalence of autism is 68 per
10,000  or 1-147.
  
   Fombonne's latest work shows that the prevalence of autism has increased
between 600% and 3400% (1-1000 down to 1-147 = 600% increase) and (1-5000
down to 1-147 = 3400% increase). Using the middle ground of 5 per 10,000 or
otherwise stated as 1-2000, the most recent epi study by this most
conservative autism epidemiologist would now suggest a 1300% increase in the
prevalence of autism over a 25 year period, or on average, a doubling of the
prevalence of autism every two years between 1976 and 2001. 
    
 
 rrollens@aol.com